The Indian economy may have grown by 7.2% in Fiscal Year 2022-23 (FY23), supported by a strong growth rate of 6.1% in the January-March quarter. This follows a GDP growth rate of 9.1% in FY22. Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed that these figures highlight the resilience of the Indian economy and its promising trajectory, backed by robust private consumption and increased capital formation.

The Chief Economic Advisor expects India to maintain solid performance in the current fiscal year, with a growth rate of 6.5%. While the government and RBI share this growth estimate, international organizations like the IMF and OECD project sub-6% growth. Agriculture and services sectors performed well in FY23, while the industry declined. The fourth quarter saw a growth rate of 8.4%, reflecting sustained momentum. Demand was driven by Gross Fixed Capital Formation and exports, while supply-side growth was propelled by various sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, construction, trade, and financial services.

Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi of Crisil comments that FY23 growth is based on an upward revision of fiscal 2022 data, and he expects the economy to slow to 6% this fiscal year due to the impact of a slowing world economy on exports and interest rate hikes affecting interest-sensitive segments. However, even at 6%, India is projected to be the fastest-growing G-20 economy. The focus now turns to the monsoon season and its impact on agricultural output and prices. Chief Economist Rajani Sinha of Care anticipates GDP growth to moderate to 6.1% in FY24 due to factors such as normalization of the base, slowing domestic demand, subdued external demand, and financial uncertainties. Despite this, rising rural wages, record foodgrains production, and lower food inflation expectations provide a positive outlook for rural demand. However, the development of El-Nino conditions during the monsoon season poses a risk to agriculture and rural income. The share of private consumption in GDP may see a slight decline, but investment demand is expected to remain robust, although global growth slowdown and financial uncertainties may affect business optimism.